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06-23-2004 Newly published data offers insight into temporary help trends.

by Bruce Steinberg

If you have been wondering why the performance of your temporary help service hasn’t been consistent with the reports from other staffing industry experts, analysts and consultants, perhaps this new data source will provide the answer. I have published a 64-page e-book containing extensive temporary help services statistics, and shows trends that may not line-up with more common measurements. The book is free through VCG.

The trouble with “averages”
The trends seen by the monthly employment number for temporary help services as widely reported from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) can be difficult to apply to the local level. The widely reported BLS temporary help services monthly employment figures (both seasonally and not seasonally adjusted) come from the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) program and are estimates from a sample. The figures presented in this article which are drawn from the just published Temporary Help Services Data Book come from a near complete universe count from administrative records.

In a sense, the CES monthly employment data are an “average” and the trouble with averages is they are not necessarily reflective of the overall situation they attempt to measure. For example, if the U.S. population were exactly 50% female and 50% male, the so-called “average American” would be half female and half male (make whatever joke you want at this point).

New data source
In brief, the Data Book found that temporary help employment started consistent monthly sequential (monthly change from the previous month) gains in February 2003. This is not consistent with a more popularly reported CES temporary help employment number (monthly seasonally adjusted) that languished until May of 2003. Additionally, quarterly temporary help payroll, which is not followed by most of the staffing experts, appeared to return to a more “normal” seasonal pattern in 2002. Source: Bruce Steinberg based on U.S. governmental agencies data.

What the “new” data shows
The Data Book breaks contains the employment (monthly), payroll (quarterly) and number of establishments (quarterly; “establishment” is governmental data-speak for office location) by state from January 2001 to September 2003. The data in this book are the most currently available as of June 2004. From those data points, several other matrices can be derived such as average weekly payroll and payroll per establishment.

The temporary help services payroll dollars have been growing well in 2003 and began to outperform the previous year’s performance in the third quarter. Specifically, in 2Q2003 payroll was up 5.3% from the previous quarter compared to a 6.8% gain in 2Q2002 from 2Q2001. However, 3Q2003 sequential growth was 3.7% to more than $11 billion while the 3Q2002 sequential growth figure was only 3.3%. Clearly payroll growth was gaining momentum by 3Q2003.

Country-wide payroll per establishment declined 7.1% in 2002 to $1,211,873 but improved by the first three quarters of 2003 (latest available data runs to 3Q2002; data to December 2003 is expected to be available by August) when it was off only 1.8%.

But, as they say in the auto industry, your actual mileage may vary. And the deviation of trends between states can be quite dramatic.

For example, Florida, which ranked fourth in the nation in regards to payroll dollars in 3Q2003, outperformed the country. Payroll per establishment grew 3.0% in 2002 to $1,483,309 and was up 13.3% for the first three quarters of 2003.

In California, the largest temporary help services market, the variations from the national changes are more stunning. Payroll per establishment was off 6.6% in 2002 (from nearly $1.9 million in 2001 to almost $1.8 million in 2002) but was up 10.6% for the first three quarters of 2003. And the differences within states can be just as startling. For example, in San Joaquin County, CA, payroll per establishment for the 2002 was off 3.8% to $1,750,937 but up 8.8% for the first three quarters of 2003. It also gained in its share of the temporary help services market. In 2002, San Joaquin County had 1.27% of the state’s temporary help employment, but 1.5% in the first three quarters of 2003; for payroll dollars, its share was 1.11% in 2002 and 1.3% for the first three quarters of 2003.

Temporary Help Services Data Book
The all states edition is complied from employers by state and federal government agencies based upon tax filings for temporary help services and published by Bruce Steinberg, formerly Research Director, Senior Editor and head of Staffing Industry Analysts’ Washington Bureau and past Director of Research and Public Relations for American Staffing Association. Data are also available at the county level.

It is easy to get your free copy of the "Temporary Help Services Data Book" – all states edition. Just send an email to Bruce Steinberg and he will send you a link to the download site of your free copy via return e-mail (only format available) – no spyware, malware, trojans, tracking cookies or strings embedded or attached.

Please note that it is a fairly large document (PDF file, about 1.2 MB)

Send email request for free book.
You can also visit Bruce's Website for more information.